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Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as Disney faces criticism over alleged leaking of shareholder vote resultsThe question on economists’ lips after the surprise easing of eurozone inflation is: will the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates as early as this month?The ECB’s rate-setting governing council, led by president Christine Lagarde, meets next week. Economists expect the council to cut rates in June, but surprising data and some doveish comments from some members of the council appear to have put an April cut into play.While at first sight this looks like it opens up a possible rate cut in April, the ECB is unlikely to act this month. More data on wage growth will come in May, and the ECB needs to be certain of its path. In President Lagarde’s own words: “we will know a little more in April, but we will know a lot more in June”.Christine Lagarde’s previous indication that the ECB may not commit outright to a path of rate cuts suggests a cautious approach, but the consensus among economists leans towards a potential cut as early as June, pending further data on wage growth trends.The challenge here for the ECB is that reaching the last mile target inflation rate of 2% may prove more arduous than anticipated, with incremental decreases seen as most likely.Will the labour market tighten further now that GDP growth looks to be rebounding? We doubt it and, in fact, suspect the unemployment rate will edge up over the coming months.A still-low unemployment rate doesn’t necessarily mean wage growth will remain at today’s highs, so it need not worry the ECB nor prevent it from starting its easing cycle. We think wage growth will come down, in line with the fall in inflation in recent months as workers’ negotiating power diminishes. A recovery in productivity would support wage growth even as inflation eases. We think productivity growth is now improving, but slowly does it. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/apr/03/taiwan-earthquake-tsmc-foxconn-disney-nelson-peltz-trian-ryanair-european-central-bank-ecb-inflation-business-live">Continue reading...</a>

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published: 2024-04-03 10:39:51.000000000 Z
carlessian_info:
 news_filer_version: 2
 newspaper: US general21
 macro_region: USA
image: https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/0497cfec6c54a6fba5d2d2548b0adcb04c9bd0c4/914_217_2737_1643/master/2737.jpg?width=140&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=82dd1d995d25d770607ab420f3037a62
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 guid: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/apr/03/taiwan-earthquake-tsmc-foxconn-disney-nelson-peltz-trian-ryanair-european-central-bank-ecb-inflation-business-live
title: Elon Musk backs Disney activist investor; Royal Mail asks to cut delivery days
 – business live
categories:
- Business
- European Central Bank
- Economics
- Europe
- Taiwan
- Ryanair
- Airline industry
- US economy
- Economic growth (GDP)
- Bank of England
- Sterling
- Elon Musk
- Walt Disney Company
summary: 'Live, rolling coverage of business, economics and financial markets as
 Disney faces criticism over alleged leaking of shareholder vote resultsThe
 question on economists’ lips after the surprise easing of eurozone inflation is:
 will the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates as early as this month?The
 ECB’s rate-setting governing council, led by president Christine Lagarde, meets
 next week. Economists expect the council to cut rates in June, but surprising data
 and some doveish comments from some members of the council appear to have put an
 April cut into play.While at first sight this looks like it opens up a possible
 rate cut in April, the ECB is unlikely to act this month. More data on wage growth
 will come in May, and the ECB needs to be certain of its path. In President Lagarde’s
 own words: “we will know a little more in April, but we will know a lot more
 in June”.Christine Lagarde’s previous indication that the ECB may not
 commit outright to a path of rate cuts suggests a cautious approach, but the consensus
 among economists leans towards a potential cut as early as June, pending further
 data on wage growth trends.The challenge here for the ECB is that reaching
 the last mile target inflation rate of 2% may prove more arduous than anticipated,
 with incremental decreases seen as most likely.Will the labour market tighten
 further now that GDP growth looks to be rebounding? We doubt it and, in fact, suspect
 the unemployment rate will edge up over the coming months.A still-low unemployment
 rate doesn’t necessarily mean wage growth will remain at today’s highs, so it need
 not worry the ECB nor prevent it from starting its easing cycle. We think wage growth
 will come down, in line with the fall in inflation in recent months as workers’
 negotiating power diminishes. A recovery in productivity would support wage growth
 even as inflation eases. We think productivity growth is now improving,
 but slowly does it. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/apr/03/taiwan-earthquake-tsmc-foxconn-disney-nelson-peltz-trian-ryanair-european-central-bank-ecb-inflation-business-live">Continue
 reading...</a>'
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- author
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url: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2024/apr/03/taiwan-earthquake-tsmc-foxconn-disney-nelson-peltz-trian-ryanair-european-central-bank-ecb-inflation-business-live
author: Jasper Jolly

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